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Personal Finance > Shiny Things

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  • The Lure of Shiny Things

    Gold has become even more alluring since I warned you off of thinking about it several months ago. During that time, I suggested that the markets would see some recovery and that recovery, coupled with a technique used by gold producers to inflate the price of the metal ending soon, would bring the price down to its past 22 year trading range.

    Way back in the early eighties, the price of gold skyrocketed to north of the eight hundred dollar an ounce mark. That price, according to the technical folk who follow this info, was at or very close to what the Dow Industrials were trading for at the time. The difference, it seems, between now and then, is an overinflated Dow price and an underinflated gold price. The difference between the two is 26.

    That means that gold, despite what is happening around the world, may be well underpriced compared to equities. I was looking at a long time trading range when I warned you off putting anything into precious metals, i.e. gold funds. Gold has been bouncing around between $250 and $300 an ounce since those heady days and the feeling that there was nothing much moving it would keep it in a sort of restricted trading range.

    I may have been wrong. With gold trading around $320, it seems with all of the additional evidence that the recovery will be lethargic at best, gold might be a really attractive parking spot for those that aren't sleeping well at night.

    For those that remain squeamish, consider this: The index that tracks this info, the Philadelphia XAU, is by popular consensus, headed towards triple digits from its current 75. If that should happen, that means that the current gold price would either have approached double it's current value or the price of stocks will be cut in half.

    The below listed funds, incidentally are not recommendations, even though they do meet quite a few of the sites standards of low expense and no-load. They meet many other standards also such as good returns historically as well as a manager that has hung around awhile.

    U.S. Global Investors Gold Shares
    P.O. Box 781234
    San Antonio, TX
    78278-1234
    Phone: 800-873-8637
          

    Ticker Symbol: USERX
    Category: Specialty-Precious Metals
    Inception Date 7/01/1974
    Family: U.S. Global Investors

    updated 9-13-02
    NAV Change % Change Prev.
    NAV
    $ 4.96 -$ .04 -.8 % 5.00

    Fund Analysis
    U.S. Global Investors Gold Shares Fund seeks long-term capital appreciation; current income is secondary. The fund normally invests at least 65% of assets in securities of companies involved in gold operations. It may also invest in companies involved with silver and other precious metals. The fund invests worldwide, though it generally favors South African and other foreign markets. Up to 10% of assets may be invested in gold or gold bullion; not more than 25% may be subject to put options. The fund charges a short-term trading fee and a $10 account closeout fee. Past names: Gold Shares Fund and United Services Gold Shares Fund.


    Annualized YTD Performance
    YTD % 71.0   YTD percent rank* 7
    3 MO % -11.0   3 MO percent rank* 95
    1 YR % 84.4   1 YR percent rank* 13
    3 YR % 13.8   3 YR percent rank* 80
    5 YR % -11.2   5 YR percent rank* 92
    10 YR % -11.9   10 YR percent rank* 100
    * Percent rank in category
    Updated 9-13-2002. 10-Year data last updated 8-31-2002.

    Worst 1 year performance: -57.4% 1997
    Best 1 year performance: +184.5% 1979

    Midas
    11 Hanover Square
    New York, NY
    10005
    Phone: 800-400-6432
    Ticker Symbol: MIDSX
    Category: Specialty-Precious Metals
    Inception Date 1/08/1986
    Family: Midas

    updated 9-13-02
    NAV Change % Change Prev.
    NAV
    $ 1.51 -$ .02 -1.3 % 1.53


    Fund Analysis
    Midas Fund seeks capital appreciation and protection against inflation; current income is secondary. The fund normally invests at least 65% of assets in securities issued by companies involved in mining, processing, fabricating, distributing, or otherwise dealing in gold, silver, or platinum, and in gold, silver, and platinum bullion. It may invest up to 35% of assets in debt rated below investment-grade. The fund also may invest without limit in foreign securities. It may use options, futures, and forward contracts for non-hedging purposes. This fund is non-diversified.


    Annualized YTD Performance
    YTD % 59.0   YTD percent rank* 36
    3 MO % 9.4   3 MO percent rank* 2
    1 YR % 67.8   1 YR percent rank* 36
    3 YR % 4.6   3 YR percent rank* 96
    5 YR % -14.2   5 YR percent rank* 96
    10 YR % -3.8   10 YR percent rank* 86
    * Percent rank in category
    Updated 9-13-2002. 10-Year data last updated 8-31-2002.

    Worst 1 year performance: -59.0% 1997
    Best 1 year performance: +98.8% 1993